Did you listen to our pre-draft special? Probably not, unless you accidentally ran across us on Sunday morning. Good news is, you’ve only missed one show. Anyway, if you HAD been listening you would have heard us talking about how you should wait later in the draft to pick your starting quarterback. Not that I’m a proponent of nabbing Kyle Orton as your starter. In fact, I LOVE a good starting quarterback. I’m even on the “elite QB” bandwagon – meaning you need one of those top 8 guys in our rankings to be successful (there’s 9 if you include Matt Ryan, as some people are). What I AM saying is that there’s no need to reach for a starting quarterback, because there’s so much value in the middle rounds.
And while usually my information comes either a) from other sources or b) reaching far into my rectal cavity to make things up…there’s actually stats to justify you not being the moron that drafts Aaron Rodgers with the 1st pick overall.
Let’s do a little Coke vs. Pepsi-esque “blind taste test”. Except instead of soda products, we’re testing quarterback stats from last year.
Quarterback A: 3,900 passing yards, 36 TD, 4 INT – 289 fantasy points
Quarterback B: 3,705 passing yards, 28 TD, 9 INT – 238 fantasy points
So a total of 51 fantasy points separates the two guys…spread that out over 16 games, and Quarterback A averages just over 3 points per game more than quarterback B.
Quarterback A, of course, is Tom Brady, who’s ADP is early in the 2nd round. Quarterback B is Matt Ryan, who’s being drafted late in the 6th round…and I’ve seen drafts where he falls to the 7th or 8th.
Let’s do another one, just for fun-sies.
Quarterback A: 4,620 passing yards, 33 TD, 22 INT – 263 fantasy points
Quarterback B: 4,002 passing yards, 31 TD, 25 INT – 221 fantasy points
In this case, quarterback A is Drew Brees (ADP: 13.8) and quarterback B is the much-maligned lesser Manning – Eli (ADP: 83.5). An
d the point per game differential is even lower, a whopping 2.6. Obviously, the 22 picks for Brees is an anomaly, but more than likely Eli’s 25 picks are from last year won’t happen again either.
Now, clearly Brady and Brees have the better numbers. But is it worth a 2nd round pick to add an extra 2-3 fantasy points per game over the other guy? I’m glad you asked. No, it’s not. I wouldn’t be writing this article if it was worth it. Because then I wouldn’t have a point, and my ego can’t handle that possibility.
Let’s say you have the 12th pick in your draft. At that point (by average draft position) – Brady, Brees, and Rashard Mendenhall are all available. You’ve seen
the stat differential between a 2nd round QB and signal callers taken in the 6th and 9th rounds, respectively. As a refresher, it’s not much. Let’s do the same comparison with Mendenhall and running backs going in the 6th and 9th rounds.
Mendenhall (Round 2): 203 fantasy points
Jahvid Best (Round 6): 127 fantasy points, -4.75 FPPG
Marshawn Lynch (Round 9): 103 fantasy points, -6.25 FPPG
Now I know there was a Jahvid Best injury and he missed a few games, but the point is – the running backs in the mid-to-later rounds are WAY uglier than the quarterback options at the same point. The numbers are similar with wide receivers – a 6th round receiver is Wes Welker, who’s not terrible but not ideal unless you’re in a PPR league. A 9th round receiver is Pierre Garcon. Pierre…Freaking… Garcon. Answer me this…guy you’d rather have on your team – Eli Manning, a homeless crackhead, or Pierre Garcon? If you answer Garcon, try again.
To summarize: The drop-off from “top tier” guys to “middle tier” guys is FAR greater for backs and receivers than it is for QBs. I’d rather load up on those top tier RBs and WRs, and then start looking for my quarterback around the 5th or 6th round. You might be surprised who’s still available. I nabbed Tony Romo in the 5th round of my draft over the weekend.
Or, go ahead and take Rodgers in the first round. And while you’re throwing your very real league fees down the metaphorical crapper, just remember who told you THAT was a bad idea.
