Three weeks ago, as I stared blankly at my ESPN.com fantasy line-up, I thought “Aw, hell, what’s the point?” See, I drafted a championship team this year in my longest running league.  Jamaal Charles with the #3 pick.  Andre Johnson and Miles Austin in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.  Peyton Hillis in the 4th.  Tony Romo in the 5th.  Jimmy Graham in the 8th.  I was set.

The problem, you see, is that Charles played one game.  Johnson has played in one game.  Austin has been out since the Cowboys bye week, and may have lost his starting job to Laurent Robinson.  Peyton Hilllis became afflicted with the Madden curse, Tony Romo has been okay, and Jimmy Graham is a beast.

But I traded Jimmy Graham for Cam Newton, who I consequently traded for Ray Rice, who is running the ball less than Tim Tebow for some reason. 

So, I stared at my team, a paltry 2-7 and in 9th place, only beating my girlfriend, who’s biggest mistakes were believing in Chris Johnson and Phillip Rivers.  I’d played musical chairs with my running backs all year, eaten the waiver wire alive and maxed out my acquisition limit of 30, so there was no reason for me to even try anymore.

Except for one thing.  There were still 4 games left. 

Since, I’ve won 3 straight, improved my record to 5-7, moved into 7th place in a league were 8 teams make the playoffs, and am a heavy favorite to win again, which would give me the 5-seed going into the playoffs.  And, honestly? Feel pretty good about my team – Romo’s playing well.  Rice is still Rice.  I scouted the waiver wire to pick up Kevin Smith, LeGarrette Blount, and DeAngelo Williams, traded for Calvin Johnson, drafted AJ Green, picked up Michael Crabtree and Percy Harvin, and am rolling with the Texans D.

I’m not rosterbating.  I probably won’t win my league…but I’m saying that there’s still hope.  There’s one game left, and unless you’re 1-11 and have completely Colts-ed yourself this year, you might still have a shot at back-ending yourself into the playoffs.  Cause over the past three weeks, some of the guys that have killed you all year have come to life.  Roddy White is playing like Roddy White.  Chris Johnson has two 100-yard games in his last 3.  Mike Williams is finally catching passes.  LeGarrette Blount is finally carrying the load.  Tim Tebow is getting his 15 points a week, and the Redskins finally have settled on a starting running back. 

Yes, all is well with the fantasy world, so as you prepare for the playoffs, let’s find a few guys that are still floating out there for you to grab.

Since this is my last regular season column, I’m not going to do my normal “stop light” philosophy.  At this point, if you’re grabbing players, you’re not desperate – you’re stockpiling.  So consider all of these guys players you can pick up and roll into the fantasy postseason with.

 

 

QUARTERBACKS

Carson Palmer, Oakland Raiders (owned in 60.7 percent of ESPN leagues) – It still baffles me that he’s out there in more leagues than Matt Schaub and Jay Cutler.  The guy has double digit fantasy performances in each of his four starts in Oakland, and once he gets Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford back, has plenty of weapons around him to make him a viable fantasy option.  They play a horrid Miami D this week, and playoff matchups against Green Bay, Detroit, Kansas City, and San Diego aren’t GREAT, but they’re not terrifying either.

Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (28.9 percent) – I don’t feel great about Dalton, as matchups against Pittsburgh, Houston, and Baltimore in Weeks 13, 14, and 17 are scary.  But Dalton has scored 14, 17, and 16 points, respectively against the Steelers, Ravens, and Browns defenses….all who rank in the Top 5 in the NFL against the pas.  So I think he’s safe second to Palmer if yo need a QB.

Donovan McNabb, Minnesota Vikings (22.0 percent) – Bahahahah, just kidding.  But I put this in to show you that 22% of teams are still hanging on to a guy who hasn’t thrown a pass in two months.  They’re not playoff teams.

IF THERE’S NO ONE ELSE: Christian Ponder (7.9 percent) has a tough schedule but has double-digit fantasy points in all but one game since he took over as the starter, and it’s clear that he’s got a good chemistry with Percy Harvin.

STAY AWAY FROM: Kyle Orton is going to be an intriguing pick up in Kansas City, but the schedule for the next 5 games is brutal from a fantasy standpoint: at Chicago, at the Jets, at home to the Packers…there’s not a good matchup until Week 16 against Oakland, and by that time you’ll be eliminated if you’re depending on Orton.

 

RUNNING BACKS

Roy Helu, Washington Redskins (33.1 percent) – FINALLY Mike Shanahan figured out what we all already knew – Helu is the best back in Washington.  Roy touched the ball 30 times and went for 21 fantasy points against a good Seattle rush defense.  He’ll be the guy until further notice, and while matchups against the Jets and Patriots loom large, Helu’s pass catching ability make him a must start in any format.

Kevin Smith, Detroit Lions (79.4 percent) – The injury is a concern, and the Week 14 matchup against the Vikings isn’t inspiring, but assuming he can get healthy, Smith has Week 15 & 16 games against the Raiders and Chargers, neither of which can stop the run.  He’s a versatile back who was looking great against a solid Green Bay D before getting hurt.  Don’t let the ankle sprain get you down.

CJ Spiller, Buffalo Bills (74.9 percent) – I don’t love Spiller, and that’s been talked about at length, but at least you know he’s the guy.  Chan Gailey shows no hesitation to hand Spiller the ball 20-25 times in a game, so the opportunities will be there, albeit the matchups aren’t great.

IF THERE’S NO ONE ELSE: Donald Brown (11.8 percent) had a big game against Carolina, and is in line to get the bulk of the carries.  But with New England, Baltimore, and Houston all still on the schedule and the Colts likely to be playing from behind, he’s a desperation play. 

STAY AWAY FROM: The Browns backfield.  Hillis may still be the guy, but you know that Pat Shurmur wants to see what he’s got in Montario Hardesty, and Chris Ogbonnaya has played his way into the rotation as well.  The matchups suck, anyway, with a cushy Arizona game sandwiched between two games apiece for Cleveland against Pittsburgh and Baltimore.  No touchy.

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers (67.4 percent) – For a guy who’s being targeted like a #1 receiver, this is an awfully low ownership percentage.  Crabtree has 9 targets in each of the last two games, and four of his last five games are against weak pass Ds (Rams, Cardinals, Seahawks, Rams).  Alex Smith isn’t great, but Crabtree’s upside makes him a better play than any of the other guys we’re about to mention.

Johnny Knox, Chicago Bears (60.4 percent) – Well, it looks like Caleb Hanie found his guy.  Knox had a season-high 145 yards on 4 catches on Sunday, and as long as that keeps up you have to feel good about Knox against Kansas City in Week 13.  Denver and Green Bay post potentially bad matchups in the playoffs, but we know the talent is there with Knox.  Just beware – he always is subject to a 1 or 2 point performance.

Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens (60.2 percent) – He’s even MORE boom or bust than Knox, but Smith is becoming more and more a part of the offense, and the Ravens play Cleveland, Indy, and San Diego in the next 3 weeks.  Those are matchups that I salivate at with Smith’s longball capability.

Laurent Robinson, Dallas Cowboys (56.2 percent) – It’s a crapshoot with Robinson since we don’t know what his role will be with the return of Miles Austin, but you have to feel like 7 touchdowns in 5 games is enough to keep him a viable weapon, and a must-own receiver, especially in deeper leagues.

David Nelson, Buffalo Bills (23.7 percent) – He disappeared there for a while, but Nelson has 4 catches now in 4 of his last 5, and has 3 touchdowns as well.  He’s still only a flex play, but with matchups against San Diego, Miami, and the bad Patriots secondary ahead for the playoff run, I’d take a gamble.

IF THERE’S NO ONE ELSE: There’s a couple of intriguing names with bad matchups on most waiver wires.  Greg Little (11.1 percent) finally caught a touchdown, but we’ve already talked about the stretch coming up for Cleveland that has them playing Baltimore and Pittsburgh each twice.  It’s a scary proposition to rely on Colt McCoy to feed your receivers against those Ds…but you at least know who McCoy is throwing to. 

STAY AWAY FROM: Dexter McCluster (21.2 percent).  It seems we keep waiting on McCLuster to break out, but he just isn’t in on enough plays to make a difference, and with Kyle Orton likely making the Chiefs a more vertical team, we imagine that McCluster will revert back to his Danny Woodhead role and have limited upside for the playoff run.

 

TIGHT ENDS

Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals (23.1 percent) – It seems like everyone jumped off Gresham when he got hurt against Indianapolis, but as he’s gotten healthier, he’s also become more a part of the offense.  He’ll never give you Jimmy Graham numbers, but he’s a hot red zone target for Andy Dalton, has two scores in his last three games.  The downside? Upcoming opponents Pittsburgh, Houston, and even the Rams defend the tight end exceptionally well.  We’re not ready to call Gresham matchup-proof just yet, but you have to think that AJ Green will steal focus away from the Bengals’ tight end and open up some lanes for him.

IF THERE’S NO ONE ELSE: Brent Celek (24.5 percent) and Jake Ballard (31.2 percent) continue to make intriguing options.  Neither one is catching a lot of touchdowns, but are generally good for 40-50 yards receiving.  Celek is the better bet to get into the endzone, since we’ve seen him increasingly get more red zone targets from Eagles QBs.  And if the Jeremy Maclin injury continues to be an issue, I’d look for Celek to continue to get a lot of those possession and goal line looks that Maclin was previously taking.

STAY AWAY FROM: Dustin Keller (61.3 percent).  Sure, his 2 touchdowns and 18 fantasy points against the Bills were promising, but keep in mind that a) the Bills defense is terrible), and b) those were his first TD grabs since Week 2.  Keller is easily third in the pecking order behind Santonio Holmes and Plaxico Burress, so as much as you might like the name and maybe even the matchups, he’s too inconsistent to really trust as your playoff tight end.

 

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

New England Patriots (57.8 percent) – It’s simple, actually.  They’re upcoming opponents are awful, and while the Patriots defense isn’t great, they’re better than the respective offenses of the Colts, Redskins, Broncos, Dolphins, and Bills, all of whom they play for your fantasy playoffs.  If you’re looking to make a change on your D/ST, they’d be the #1 team I’d be after.

IF THERE’S NO ONE ELSE: The Arizona Cardinals (5.0 percent) are subject to the big play, and I wouldn’t touch them this week against Dallas.  But San Francisco, Cleveland, and Seattle, who the Cardinals match up against in Weeks 14, 15, and 17, don’t instill fear in anyone, and with Patrick Peterson’s ability to break the big special teams play, they could be an interesting deep play.  Coincidentally, the Cardinals have scored no LESS than 5 fantasy points on defense since Week 7.

STAY AWAY FROM: Cleveland Browns (26.7 percent).  Joe Haden makes them a trendy sleeper defense, but they’re still awful against the run, and get the privilege of facing Ray Rice (twice), Rashard Mendenhall (twice), and Beanie Wells over the next 5 weeks.  Don’t get cute here.  There are  better options.