Wrong is tough word to swallow. I’ve been in numerous fights with my girlfriend, and I promise on everything I own that I have never uttered the phrase “I was wrong”. Now I may have said “Honey, you were right”, which one might argue is implying my incorrect-ness, but “wrong” is such a dirty word.
Admitting you’re wrong basically implies our ineptitude to do something that you were, allegedly, expected to do capably. It’s a word that is basically a five-letter way of saying “No, stupid, you let me down”. So, in a business where we often have to swallow our pride and admit our faults as fantasy analysts, I say this:
EFF YOU
Okay, seriously, did YOU predict Chris Johnson’s complete inability to break a big run? Or Carson Palmer’s success in Oakland? Or Jamaal Charles, Andre Johnson, Miles Austin, Darren McFadden, and a slew of others having impactful injuries? Of course not.
So, yes, I was wrong about Matt Ryan stepping into the elite tier of QBs this year. And yes, I was way off on my prediction of Felix Jones as a Top 10 running back this year, and my bold statement that Mike Tolbert would be a steal in the 9th round of your draft. And that Ochocinco sleeper pick? Yikes….
But, to be fair, I told you to draft Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Graham, Willis McGahee, and Ben Tate. I said Calvin Johnson would be the #1 wide receiver in fantasy football, and that Aaron Rodgers would be the top quarterback. And I told you to be cautious of Michael Vick, Peyton Hillis, and Antonio Gates.
So sometimes I’m right dammit!!!!!!
Oh, stop it, you can pat me on the back and shower me with praises AFTER you win your league championship. In the meantime, we have one more week of fantasy regular season to sneak into the playoffs, jockey for seeding, and solidify your lineup for the road to bragging rights.
As always, I’ll tell you that in this column, there are some players I “Love” and some that I would “leave”. This is NOT a start/sit column, it’s just my way of saying “This guy is going to outperform expectations” and “This guy is going to fall below expectations”. So don’t get cute. Here goes:
LOVE EM
Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers – You’re probably looking at the Bengals matchup and saying “whoa, where’d you get your meth?” And that answer is none of your business. But it actually makes sense. Roethlisberger is ranked #10 this week, a low end QB1. But I think too much respect is being handed to the Bengals D. See, they stop the run really well, so Big Ben will have to air it out for Pittsburgh to win. Earlier in the season, that was a tricky predicament, but the Bengals secondary is banged up. Leon Hall is out, Nate Clements hasn’t been all that effective, and the Bengals have allowed at least 11 fantasy points to opposing QBs in every single week since their bye. Those QBs, by the way? Tavaris Jackson, Matt Hasselbeck, Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, and Colt McCoy. Outside of Big Ben, not exactly a who’s who of fantasy all-stars. Trust that Steelers passing game.
Matt Moore, QB, Miami Dolphins – What’s a guy gotta do to get respect around here? Sure, Moore is wildly inconsistent, and you don’t wanna trust him for 20 points. But the Raiders allow 250+ passing yards per game, rank in the Bottom 10 in the league in terms of FPTs allowed to opposing signal-callers, and that Brandon Marshall guy is pretty good. If you lost Matt Leinart last week (ha! Like you owned Matt Leinart), Moore’s a pretty good fill in for Week 13.
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers – no disrespect to these defenses…no, wait. Lots of disrespect to these defenses. They’re both mediocre against the pass, but AWFUL against the run. Awful, I tell you!!! Since Gerald McCoy went out, the Bucs have been the worst rushing defense in the NFL, and it’s not close. So I think that Williams has another solid outing, as he did against Indy last week. And now that Blount is being utilized the way he SHOULD be by Raheem Morris, he should see plenty of opportunities against a Panthers D that got destroyed by Donald Freaking Brown last week.
Roy Helu, RB, Washington Redskins – I’m all in, and I believe you, Shanahan. Don’t let me down now!
Chris Jonshon, RB, Buffalo Bills – He’s become a matchup play, and this is a good one against a Bills defense the 3rd most touchdowns (13) to opposing running backs this season.
Marion Barber, RB, Chicago Bears – Call it a gut move, but with Forte struggling between the tackles, the Bears will need Barber to be that inside force, especially down inside the 5. Did you know that Matt Forte is the only top-10 fantasy RB that is not averaging more than 1 carry per game inside an opponents 10 yard line? You know why? Cause Barber is doing it, and with Caleb Hanie running things on the field, Chicago needs their running game to carry the load. As a flex play, Barber is a pretty good bet to score.
Marcel Reece, RB, Oakland Raiders – You know what Reece does that none of the currently active Raiders receivers does? Catches passes from Carson Palmer. Reece had a huge week last week and led the Raiders in receiving yards, and against a Dolphins defense that defends the straight-ahead run exceptionally well (3rd in the NFL against the rush), that aspect of Reece’s game should be on display again. He’s not a RB1 or RB2 option, but as a flex or a deep league flyer, go for it.
Wes Welker and Deion Branch, WR, New England Patriots – They’re playing the Colts, and harping every week on how bad Indianapolis is against the pass is just mean. Start them and be happy about it.
Percy Harvin, WR, Minnesota Vikings – On the surface, this makes sense because Adrian Peterson is still hurt and Christian Ponder uses Harvin as his running game. Dig deeper, and you’ll find that the Vikings just placed Michael Jenkins on IR, which leaves Bernard Berrian and Devin Aromashodu as the other receivers in Minny. If you just scowled and slammed your head on your desk, it’s okay. Harvin is literally the ONLY option for Minnesota, and although Champ Bailey is an above average corner, we think Harvin gets involved in so many different ways that he’ll still have a monster week.
Riley Cooper, WR, Philadelphia Eagles – No Jeremy Maclin, Desean Jackson is unreliable, and still no Michael Vick. What do you make of it? Well, you go with the guy who has 17 targets in the past two weeks and a ton of upside. Coincidentally, the same can be said of Jason Avant, who I also like. But I just kind of feel like it’s a Cooper week.
Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens – I think Joe Haden will be on Anquan Boldin. And I think Smith is turning into a true #2 receiver.
Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts – This seems to be implying that I trust Dan Orvlosky, and I don’t. But I think the hate has gone too far on Wayne, who is still a superior talent being projected for 4 or 5 points in most leagues. The Patriots are vulnerable to the pass, and I feel like Orvlosky is going to take the John Skelton Approach to Quarterbacking – throw it to your best guy 15 times and hope he comes down with a few. That guy is Reggie Wayne in Indy, and you know they will be behind in this one. I’ll gamble Wayne as a flex play and hope for 7 catches and a touchdown.
Jake Ballard, TE, New York Giants – Hakeem Nicks will not score a touchdown in this game, because Charles Woodson is still pretty damn good. Victor Cruz will score. And Jake Ballard will score. Thank me later.
Jared Cook, TE, Tennessee Titans – The Bills are the 7th worst team in the league against opposing tight ends, and Cook is a superior physical specimen. And yes, that makes me sound like I have a crush on him. I don’t, and in fact I feel a little queasy stepping out on him this week, as riding the Jared Cook rollercoaster this season plays with your emotions more than that super hot senior that you had a crush on in the 9th grade. But I like what I see with Cook, and if you’re desperate, it might be a shot.
Patriots D/ST – See Wayne, Reggie. Yes, I like Wayne to score. But I wouldn’t be shocked if he didn’t. And I won’t be surprised if the Pats completely shut down the Colts. Because the Colts are bad. End of story.
LEAVE EM
Tim Tebow, QB, Denver Broncos – Minnesota does very little well defensively. But they stop the run, and don’t think that Jared Allen, EJ Henderson and company won’t have an answer for that quirky triple-option offense. This is the week that Tebow a) loses and b) doesn’t get a rushing touchdown.
Kyle Orton, QB, Kansas City Chiefs – People are way too excited about a guy that got benched for Tim Tebow starting his first game for a new team against a defense that has 12 picks in it’s last 5 games.
Steven Jackson, RB, St. Louis Rams – The 49ers are making a case to be the first team ever to go an entire season without allowing a rushing touchdown. After seeing them stuff Ray Rice at the goal line twice on Thanksgiving, I believe. SJax gets blanked.
Ryan Grant and James Starks, RB, Green Bay Packers – The Packers don’t run!! Look, I know, we all get really excited about Packers players, and rightfully so, but even if Starks doesn’t play, it doesn’t help Grant’s value. They don’t run…no, not even against the Giants’ surprisingly bad rush defense. The Packers have 8 rushing touchdowns this season. 4 belong to John Kuhn, who has 14 total carries. 2 belong to Aaron Rodgers. And 1 belongs to B.J. Raji, who’s a defensive tackle. That leaves ONE touchdown between the two Packers feature backs. Stop getting so giddy and bench/drop them.
Peyton Hillis, RB, Cleveland Browns – I don’t care how many carries he gets. He’s slow, the Browns offensive line is bad, and the Ravens’ defense is good. Stay away. Far, far, away.
Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys – An improving Patrick Peterson will probably cover him, Laurent Robinson has more targets over the last three weeks, and Miles Austin should be back in the mix here too. Way too many options for Romo to go to, so Bryant scares me a little bit this week. I’m not saying bench him, I just don’t think he’ll be a legitimate Top 10 receiver.
Hakeem Nicks, WR, New York Giants – See Ballard, Jake in the “Love Em” section
Santana Moss, WR, Washington Redskins – I know, I know, everyone’s excited he’s back. But against the Jets and Darrelle Revis? Jabar Gaffney’s the guy I want this week, if anyone.
Any Houston Texans wide receiver or tight end – The quarterback will either be T.J. Yates or Jake Delhomme. And sadly, I’m more optimistic if I were sure it was Yates. Either way, I’m not thrilled about either one. I expect Arian Foster and Ben Tate to combine for 50 carries in this game.
There ya go, friends. Good luck! I would try to write another few words and get to 2,000…but I have to go poop. So you get 1,960 and you’ll like it. Good luck in Week 13 and talk to you Sunday on the show!
